Según analistas, los precios se desaceleraron en el décimo mes del año porque después de remarcar con fuerza tras la devaluación de agosto, los formadores de precios se quedaron con poco margen para seguir aumentando y el dólar estuvo más contenido.
La inflación de octubre se desaceleró al 3,3% –mucho más de lo que esperaban analistas-, sin embargo el acumulado de 2019 llegó al 42,2%, según informó este jueves el Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas y Censos (INDEC).
Según las cifras oficiales, la suba del costo de vida en los últimos doce meses alcanzó al 50,5%.
La disminución de la inflación en octubre se vio impulsada, en gran medida, por los menores aumentos en el rubro alimentos, que se incrementó un 2,5%, frente al 5,7% de septiembre (alcanza en el año una suba del 43,7%, un punto porcentual por encima de la inflación acumulada).
En octubre, impactaron fuertemente el aumento del 8,1% en los precios de equipamiento y mantenimiento del hogar; del 6,2% en bebidas alcohólicas y tabaco, y del 4,7% en los gastos de salud. Los factores que influyeron en la suba mensual fueron la devaluación que impactó principalmente en los precios de electrodomésticos y las alzas en el precio de los cigarrillos y en las cuotas de la medicina prepaga.
Según analistas, los precios se desaceleraron en el décimo mes del año porque después de remarcar con fuerza tras la devaluación de agosto, los formadores de precios se quedaron con poco margen para seguir aumentando y el dólar estuvo más contenido.
La inflación resultó sensiblemente inferior a la estimada por los analistas económicos (4,2%), según el Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) que elabora el BCRA.
Por su parte, el IPC Núcleo subió 3,8% (2,6 p.p. por debajo del de septiembre); los Precios Regulados aumentaron 2% (1,4 p.p. menos que en septiembre); y los ítems estacionales se incrementaron 2,8%, (5,7 p.p. menos que el mes anterior).
Cabe destacar que el costo de vida se desaceleró levemente luego de que en septiembre se disparara al 5,9%.
Tasas reales positivas
Dada la inflación de octubre, las tasas de interés reales de los depósitos a plazo fijo se mantuvieron en terreno positivo durante el mes. Un depositante minorista que constituyó un plazo fijo a 30 días a comienzos del mes con una tasa nominal anual de 55,3% (4,5% efectiva mensual), obtuvo un retorno real de 1,2% efectivo mensual. Por su parte, un depositante mayorista, que colocó a una tasa nominal anual de 59,9% (4,9 % efectivo mensual) logró un rendimiento real de 1,6% efectivo mensual.
“Esto fue propiciado por lo ocurrido con la tasa de interés de referencia. En un contexto de menor volatilidad financiera, la tasa de interés de las Leliq cayó 10 puntos porcentuales desde fines de septiembre, hasta alcanzar la tasa mínima de 68% anual que había fijado el COPOM para octubre. De esta manera se mantuvo un piso de tasa de interés con el objeto de garantizar un rendimiento positivo en términos reales para los ahorristas”, dijeron fuentes oficiales a Ámbito.
Noviembre, con mayores subas
La perspectiva es otra para noviembre, ya que se notó mayor movimiento en los precios de alimentos y bebidas, de acuerdo con las empresas que realizan monitoreo de precios.
- Informate más: Para los gremios, la inflación de octubre fue del 4,1% y el salario real cayó 18% en 4 años
A eso se sumará el incremento previsto desde este jueves en los precios de los combustibles, ya que termina el congelamiento que había dispuesto el Gobierno aunque a principios de septiembre había habilitado un incremento del 5%.
La desaceleración de precios de octubre es entonces coyuntural ya que en noviembre se anticipa una remarcación de precios en los supermercados en torno al 15% a lo que habría que sumar los aumentos en combustibles, que repercuten sobre todo la cadena de comercialización.
- Informate más: ¿Cómo mide la inflación el INDEC?
Aunque en noviembre el dólar sigue calmo, no frenaron los incrementos en alimentos y otros productos básicos, a lo que se sumará el aumento en las naftas.
La Fundación Libertad y Progreso estimó la suba de precios al consumidor para noviembre en torno al 4,8%, mientras que otras consultoras privadas también proyectan alzas en torno a ese número.
Para noviembre los participantes del REM, la encuesta que mensualmente realiza el Banco Central esperan una tasa de inflación de 4,1% mensual, con una trayectoria en leve descenso para diciembre, con una suba proyectada de 4,0% mensual.
Para el acumulado de 2019, los analistas estimaron una inflación a nivel general de 55,6% y 59,5% en el índice núcleo y para 2020, la expectativa de inflación de los analistas se ubicó en 42,9% para el nivel general y 42,5% en el núcleo.
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